I have to admit…after going 3-0-1 against the spread in the opening weekend of the playoffs, I was feeling pretty good about myself. I may have even let the thought: “geez, I should have entered that playoff pool I was considering” slip into my head once or twice. Well thank goodness I didn’t enter that pool, because I was humbled considerably last weekend by going 1-3.
Who saw the Colts’ collapse coming? Obviously I didn’t, but there was a small part of me that took a little joy in the Colts’ defeat (it’s a sad fact, but I am still quite bitter about the Colts “throwing the game” in Week 17 that knocked the Browns out of the playoffs. For more on this check out my running diary of that Colts v. Titans game. It’s an earlier post on this site).
It actually sparked an interesting topic of discussion amongst my friends this week, as I asserted that the Colt’s loss may actually have had something to do with the fact that the Colts rested their starters in Week 17.
Do you think Tony Dungy wished he had put Manning and the Colt starters back in for the final drive against Tennessee to give them game speed experience with the two minute drill? Wouldn’t some come-back practice have been nice? It certainly seems like teams that have rested their starters and broken their stride have fared poorly this postseason (Tampa, Dallas, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, and Jacksonville). This is by no means a hard and fast rule and it’s really just an observation of this year. I think I might spend some time this February (the most boring month in sports b/c football is over and baseball hasn’t started yet) to investigate this further by looking back at past years.
What do you think? Should teams rest their starters if their postseason position is locked up? Does it hurt their chances of success or give their best players much needed rest and recovery time? Post your responses as a reply to this column. Now on to the picks.
NEW ENGLAND (-14) over San Diego
I really wanted to take the Chargers here, but all this footage of Philip Rivers taunting Colts fans and Igor Olshansky making these stupid comments: “Who? New England?” You’re kidding me, right? Not only is Belichick going to run up the score, he’s going to come after our pal Igor and embarrass him.
How about that Philip Rivers? I’m all about getting fired up after a victory, but what does it say about the man’s character if his outlet for the thrill of victory involves putting people down? That’s not an attribute of a true leader, and San Diego is going to need a true leader if they expect to walk into New England and cover. I’m not about to back Philip Rivers this week because he’s a punk.
Finally, I think San Diego is banged up. LT and Turner make a formidable 1-2 punch, but Belichick will plan for that. He’s going to make Rivers beat him by loading the box against the run, and honestly, Rivers is not going to beat the Pats through the air. It’s going to be extremely cold, and it might even snow. Once the Pats are up by 10 or more going into the 4th quarter, he’ll turn up the heat on Rivers and start blitzing like a madman. After that, I don’t think the Pats ever look back.
Final Score: New England 31, San Diego 16
GREEN BAY (-7) over New York
To be honest, I have no idea what to think about this game. I really underestimated the Packers last week. They went down by 14 immediately and the defense responded by shutting down Seattle for the rest of the game. Favre’s got that Fountain of Youth thing going and he’s going to pick apart the Giants depleted secondary. Grant was impressive by bouncing back from those two turnovers, and Coach McCarthy showed a lot of composure by not going crazy and chewing out/benching him.
I’ve been backing Eli and the G-Men so far this postseason because I was impressed with their effort in the loss to New England. There’s no doubt they think they can win. They have confidence in themselves and their quarterback, and they certainly have momentum coming into this weekend. That being said, they have one less day of rest (does it matter, who knows?) and, forgetting the spread, I just plain don’t think they’re good enough to win this game. I’m not going to get into the guessing game of saying that Green Bay wins but doesn’t cover (that didn’t work last week…). Let’s hope for another snow storm so we can get the Super Bowl matchup everyone wants!
Final Score: Green Bay 30, New York 13
